THE WORLD, EXPLAINED.

UNEP sets out emissions cuts needed to limit climate overshoot

The new assessment separates current-policy projections from a pathway back toward 1.5°C.

By Ayal · October 21, 2026 · Updated October 22, 2026

Part of the Panther Creek Wind Farm in Howard County, Texas, in August 2014. Archival energy-transition context; not evidence of the report’s emissions projections. Larry D. Moore / Panther creek windfarm big spring tx.jpg — CC BY 4.0. Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Panther_creek_windfarm_big_spring_tx.jpg License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 Provider-sized copy; no content edits. Display may crop to fit cards.

UNEP’s October 21 Emissions Gap Report says current policies could produce warming of 2.8°C within this century. It describes a more ambitious pathway intended to limit overshoot and return temperatures to or below 1.5°C by 2100.

For that pathway, the report calls for global greenhouse-gas emissions cuts of 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035, compared with 2025. The return-to-1.5°C outcome has about a 50% chance under the scenario’s assumptions, rather than being guaranteed.